[How The Frost Belt And Sun Belt Illustrate The Complexity Of Americas Urban-Rural Divide]. Along with neighboring Pinellas County (St. Petersburg), the two counties include nearly a half-million registered Republicans. Clinton is counting on running up big numbers in the city of Pittsburgh to offset any gains Trump may make in the suburbs, and in the more conservative surrounding southwestern Pennsylvania counties, including Westmoreland County. Just a tiny fraction of them truly matter. But that's no longer the case. Follow us on Telegram to be notified when we release the remaining articles. Scott Walker all three times his name appeared on the ballot. Third, it lists the fractionof bellwether counties each candidate won Obama at 18 of 19, Trump at 18 of 19 and Biden at one of 19. There are 25 counties with a Democrat percentage vote over 60%. Statewide results: 2012: Romney 53%-44% - 2008: McCain 54%-45%. Split-Ticket Voters Helped Biden, Republicans in Nebraska, Maine, Your California Privacy Rights/Privacy Policy. Team up with others in your region, and help out by "That didn't happen after 2016," she adds. Bucks has three times the voters than its neighboring county to the north. North Carolina (15 electoral votes) - Toss-up Bellwether: Watauga In the western mountains on the border with Tennessee, it's home to Boone, which includes Appalachian State. Latestvoter registration totals:Democrats: 521,881Republicans: 248,934Unaffiliated: 66,775Other: 45,567. Enter Donald Trump. 8. In 132 years, no president has received more votes in his run for reelection and lost. They are not a statistical curiosity, but the perfect distillation or embodiment of the whole countrys sentiment. Latest voter registration totals:Undeclared: 105,097Republicans: 87,763Democrats: 77,383. All other 21 counties voted Republican. And as was true in 2016, those counties voted substantially to the right of the nation. Bellwether counties in swing states show that the demographic gulf between the Democrats' more urban coalition and the Republicans' base of rural and blue collar whites is poised to grow ever . As the country's demographics shift and the rural-urban divide becomes more pronounced, the chances appear slim. A total of 35 counties voted for the winner of each presidential election from 1980 through 2012. It also backed Gov. That includes10elections, includingObama in 2008 and Trump in 2016. Pittsburghs Allegheny County, the second-most populous county in the state after Philadelphia, is heavily Democratic. Increased political polarization is another reason why fewer counties are consistently indicative of presidential results in recent years. (Think about what it takes, and what is required for a county to always get the election right. Latest voter registration totals: Democrats: 116,093Republicans 89,644Unaffiliated: 86,703. Much of the rest of the state is rural and ruby red Republican. A total of 35 counties voted for the winner of each presidential election from 1980 through 2012. In the western mountains on the border with Tennessee, it's home to Boone, which includes Appalachian State. It requires a lot more than pure luck.). Election bellwether counties in the United States are counties that vote in alignment with the country as a whole in United States presidential elections, so that the county votes for the candidate who ultimately wins the election. Some of the same messages that are going to work in Northeastern Ohio are maybe not going to work as well down here, said county GOP Chairman Alex Triantafilou. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 51%-47% - 2008: Obama 53%-46%. "We call them bellwethers because there's some fluke statistic, sometimes they are the right mix of different demographics. 2016 primary winners: Sanders, Trump2012: Romney 52%, Obama 47%, Latest voter registration totals:Undeclared: 82,008Republicans: 80,068Democrats: 63,257. That includes 10 elections, including Obama in 2008 and Trump in 2016. And speak out if youve been a witness to election tampering. 11. Demographically, the bellwether counties tended to be whiter, older, less . Lets rank these counties from highest to lowest Democrat voting percentages in the 2008 election. In the end, only Clallam County retained its streak this year. White voters without a college degree used to vote more like the country as a whole, which helps explain why these counties maintained their bellwether status for a long time. Help raise awareness within your community about the lingering, unresolved issues with election integrity. Watch this populous county, home to Manchester. History suggests not: just two-thirds of historic bellwether counties. In 2008, Obama carried this county outside Detroit by 9 percentage points but that winning margin was cut in half in 2012 with Michigan native Mitt Romney leading the GOP ticket. An Inquiry of Bellwether Counties in US Presidential Elections, 1980-2016 Daniel Zimny-Schmitt1, Michael C. Harris2 1. There are a total of 3,142 counties or county equivalents in the United States.[1]. Here are the top 50 counties by Democrat voting percentage in 2008: How many of these counties swung back to the Democrat party in 2020? These counties' national bellwether status might not ring true in 2016, though, because Illinois is one of Obama's home states. For that reason,Rogers M. Smith, a political scientistat the University of Pennsylvania, told Reutersthat "focusing on counties won as an indicator of the likely popular vote winner makes no sense whatsoever.". It is the only county to go twice for Bush and twice for Obama. Putting names to archive photos, The children left behind in Cuba's mass exodus, In photos: India's disappearing single-screen cinemas. "I asked if they were from the Republican Party, and they said they were," she says. 12. From his tweet: From 1984 through 2016, spanning presidential elections, seventeen US counties in several states ad voted for the winning presidential candidate in an astounding 148 of 153 times including 100% five times for five different presidents: Advertisement - story continues below 1984 Reagan 1996 Clinton 2000 Bush 2012 Obama 2016 Trump Maricopa (home to Phoenix) is the most populous county in the state by far 60 percent of voters live here. Of these 35 counties, 10 of them consistently voted over 50% for the winning candidate since the year 2000. At one end of the I-4 corridor, Tampas Hillsborough County is a top bellwether -- since 1960, no candidate has won Florida without winning Hillsborough. (You can make up your own mind on what the trends mean.). It clearly shows they hold no allegiances and will vote for whichever party makes the most sense to them at each election. Situated on the southern shore of Lake Erie in Ohio, Ottawa County is one of America's most accurate bellwether counties - a region where voters correctly pick the president, election after election for decades at a time. There are 22 counties in the US that managed to vote for the winning party in every single election from 1988 to 2016. (See the DPV 08 column in the image below.) Wilkes-Barres Luzerne County is traditionally Democratic territory in northeastern Pennsylvania but its also an aging, working-class county where Trumps message is resonating. Suburban Richmonds Henrico County was once a reliable GOP stronghold it went twice for George W. Bush and backed Bob McDonnell in his 2009 gubernatorial win. Fourth, it lists whether they won Florida, Ohio and Iowa Obama won them, Trump won them, Biden lost them. If youve done your research and found the 2020 results for each of these counties, you should find the results extremely puzzling. View our How You Can Help page, or contribute via Click here, for more. Valencia County is home to a string of towns along the banks of the Rio Grande river in an otherwise largely arid stretch of desert south of Albuquerque. 2023 BBC. So we took 15 of the states where this election has been hotly waged and identified one county in each that has gone with the winner or closely reflected the statewide margin in each. Seven counties, including Vigo, have got it right in the past dozen elections. Vigo County, Indiana, is a serious bellwether county. In 2020,Biden received81,281,888 votes andTrump received74,223,251 votes, according to a tally byUSA TODAY. The key is going to be what kind of floor McMullin has statewide and Trump's ceiling. It gets a lot more interesting. ", "Bellwether Counties Nearly Wiped Out by 2020 Election", "Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections", https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=List_of_election_bellwether_counties_in_the_United_States&oldid=1125445752, This page was last edited on 4 December 2022, at 01:36. But since it's gotten so much attention this cycle with the possibility that independent Evan McMullin siphons off votes from Trump, we kept it in here. That's 14 in a row. Shield icon by Freepik from flaticon.com. On Dec. 1, formerAttorney General William Barr also told the Associated Pressthe U.S. Justice Department had uncovered no such evidence. It provided the second highest vote totals of any county and a significant share for Democrats. Go on, look them up! Latest voter registration totals: 618,420 No party registration. [How Much Did COVID-19 Affect The 2020 Election?]. In total, Trump won 18 of the 19 former bellwether counties, winning the average such county by 13.7 points in 2020. GOP Chairman Dale Fellows noted that the population has been steadily aging in recent years. And notably, the 16 counties that lost their bellwether status in 2016 are more racially diverse (median of 46 percent non-Hispanic white, compared to 89 percent) and more highly educated (median of 27 percent of adults 25 or older with a bachelors degree or higher, compared to 22 percent) than the 19 counties that maintained their bellwether status. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 52%-46% - 2008: Obama 55%-43%. Instead, you can Find the latest updates on our Telegram channel which has more recent updates. Their hopes are real. This website merely reports on substantial allegations made by well-known public figures, elected officials, members of congress, and their legal teams, and will correct errors when notified. Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 480,926Republicans, 323,870Unaffiliated: 229,298Others: 65,281. Like Texas, Utah looks like it's receded from the battleground, so we don't include it in our 13 battlegrounds. A majority of voters here had backed the eventual winner of presidential elections every time since 1964. It all starts in Salt Lake, a place more liberal than you might think. We organized this by poll-closing time (all in Eastern time for the latest poll-closing times in that state), so you can follow along as the night goes: 1. Watch the margins in Story (Ames) and Scott (Davenport). In other words, only 54 percent of bellwether counties from 1980 to 2012 kept their status in 2016. Seriously. The idea being these counties are good at sensing a change of sentiment and will happily vote for whichever party makes the most sense to them. The most impressive of those was Valencia County, New Mexico, which voted for the victor in every presidential election from 1952 to 2016. Were doing a lot of adult retraining, he said. The Bellwether County to Watch in Pennsylvania . Really stop reading. These are places that are demographically strong for Republicans in the abstract, but might have had something that kept them closer to 50-50.". This fact check is available at IFCNs 2020 US Elections FactChat #Chatbot on WhatsApp. Of these 35 counties, 10 of them consistently voted over 50% for the winning candidate since the year 2000. Sumter County, . Compiled by Si Williams, non-US resident, and other contributors. From 1980 through 2016, there were 19 counties that consistently voted for the eventual president. BELLWETHER, a documentary web-series, will cover the 2016 presidential election through the eyes and experiences of voters in Terre Haute and Vigo County, the most consistently accurate "bellwether" in the nation. How many of these 150 switch counties voted Democrat in 2020? In fact, they became even more Republican the average bellwether county from 1980 to 2016 voted 18.2 points to the right of the nation. The divisions were everywhere. But what if we told you that only 1 of these 22 counties voted for Biden in 2020? Republicans have a voter registration advantage here but in recent presidential elections, its had consistently tight margins: In 2012 Obama won it by less than 4,000 votes. "Democrats have really not done anything for the farmers They've totally ignored the rural community. Ultimately, they are simply 19 counties and this time, 18 of them voted for the candidate who lost the election. The Milwaukee suburb went for Obama by just 3 points in 2012, but went for George W. Bush in 2004 when Wisconsin was the closest state of that election, though it went for Democrat John Kerry. Trump won Luzerne County by nearly 20 points in 2016, outperforming Romney . "This process allows for the identification and correction of any mistakes or errors.". The Art Of The Vote: Who Designs The Ballots We Cast. 2016 primary winners: Clinton, Cruz2012: Obama 53%, Romney 46%, Latestvoter registration totals:Democrats: 101,967Republicans: 75,145Unaffiliated:65,344Libertarian: 1,022. Hamilton is ringed by heavily Republican Butler, Warren and Clermont counties, and it shares a border with Indiana, which is giving hope to GOP officials who think Trumps running mate, Indiana Gov. We believe this was a mistake. (Needless to say that if the tables were reversed, we would hear no end of the significance of bellwether counties in the media.). Combinedwith general population growth, and this election had 27 million more participants. It abuts Clevelands Cuyahoga County to the east and went narrowly to Mitt Romney in 2012. We relaxed the constraint by introducing the concept of a swing county, i.e. Kerry Sheridan/AFP/Getty Images You can subscribe to our print edition, ad-free app or electronic newspaper replica here. It's true that both Obama in 2008 and Trump in 2020 won in Florida, Ohio and Iowa. Published Nov. 8, 2016 at 5:30 a.m. If Clinton's winning there, it means she's hitting marks with young voters. On Dec. 14, President-elect Joe Biden secured his victory after he received306 votes from the Electoral College, per USA TODAY. "It gave suburban moderates an opportunity to vent their anger at Trump directly at the top of the ticket but continue to vote for the down-ballot Republicans they liked," he said. Other counties to watch: Almost half of all of Obama's votes in 2012 came from just three places Milwaukee City, Milwaukee County and Dane (Madison, home to the University of Wisconsin). Hillsborough made up more than half that margin Obama won the county by 36,000 votes. The exurban county has seen a surge in minority voters in fact, non-Hispanic whites only constitute 62 percent of the vote, and thats made the area more competitive. A majority of voters here had backed the eventual winner of presidential elections every time since 1964. Telegram Telegram We have looked at every imaginable scenario to build a case for the Democrat party winning the 2020 election based upon how our trusted counties voted. In fact, they became even more Republican the average bellwether county from 1980 to 2016 voted 18.2 points to the right of the nation. In total, Trump won 18 of the 19 former bellwether counties, winning the average such county by 13.7 points in 2020. In Valencia County, Mr Trump beat Mr Biden by six points more than he defeated Democratic Party candidate Hillary Clinton in 2016. But that changed in 2016 when Trump made huge gains with white voters without a college degree. Especially since Biden received million more votes than Obama did in 2008.

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